The Big Four Economic Indicators: Real Personal Income for September
Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in September rose 0.11% and is up 4.0% year-over-year. When we adjust for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding...
View ArticleECRI Weekly Leading Index: "Flagging Family Fortunes"
ECRI's latest weekly data point shows a fractional decrease from the previous week and their latest feature commentary published earlier this week highlights the declining median household income over...
View ArticleTwo Measures of Inflation and Fed Policy
The BEA's Personal Consumption Expenditures Chain-type Price Index for September shows core inflation below the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 1.31%, unchanged from last month. The latest...
View ArticleVehicle Miles Traveled: A Fresh Look at Our Evolving Behavior
The Department of Transportation's Federal Highway Commission has released the latest report on Traffic Volume Trends, data through August. "Travel on all roads and streets changed by 2.3% (6.3 billion...
View ArticleMoving Averages: October Month-End Update
Valid until the market close on November 30, 2015 The S&P 500 closed October with a monthly gain of 8.30%. All three S&P 500 MAs and three of the five Ivy Portfolio ETF MAs are signaling...
View ArticleWorld Markets Weekend Update: Three Up, Five Down
Three of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains over the past week, down from eight up the previous week. Japan's Nikkei was the top performer with its 1.27% advance. Germany's DAX was a...
View ArticleRegression to Trend: A New Look at Long-Term Market Performance
Quick take: At the end of October the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 85% above its long-term trend, an increase from 77% the previous month.About the only certainty in the stock market...
View ArticleISM Manufacturing Index: Lowest Reading Since May 2013
Today the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for October. The latest headline PMI was 50.1 percent, a decrease of 0.1% from the previous month and above the...
View ArticleRegional Fed Manufacturing Overview: October
The Federal Reserve System consists of twelve Federal Reserve Banks, twenty five branches, and the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C. Each bank serves a larger regional district. Five out of the...
View ArticleThe Q Ratio and Market Valuation: October Update
The Q Ratio is a popular method of estimating the fair value of the stock market developed by Nobel Laureate James Tobin. It's a fairly simple concept, but laborious to calculate. The Q Ratio is the...
View ArticleCrestmont Market Valuation Update
Quick take: Based on the October S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E is 87% above its arithmetic mean and at the 97th percentile of this fourteen-plus-decade monthly metric.read more...
View ArticleWeekly Gasoline Price Update: Regular and Premium Down Less Than a Penny
It's time again for our weekly gasoline update based on data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The price of Regular and Premium dropped a fraction of a penny each. WTIC ended today at...
View ArticleLight Vehicle Sales Per Capita: Another Look at the Long-Term Trend
For the past few years we've been following a couple of transportation metrics: Vehicle Miles Traveled and Gasoline Volume Sales. For both series we focus on the population adjusted data. Let's now do...
View ArticleSeptember Trade Deficit Lowest in Seven Months
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992. The monthly reports include revisions...
View ArticleAnticipating October Employment: ADP Report at 182K
The economic mover and shaker this week is Friday's employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This monthly report contains a wealth of data for economists, the most publicized being the...
View ArticleISM Non-Manufacturing: October Growth at Faster Rate
Today the Institute for Supply Management published its latest Non-Manufacturing Report. The headline NMI Composite Index is at 59.1 percent, up 2.2 percent from last month's 56.9 percent. Today's...
View ArticleS&P 500 Snapshot: A Modest Decline Snaps a Two-Day Rally
The S&P 500 ended the session with a modest -0.35% decline. The pre-market economic news was a tepid estimate of 182K new nonfarm private employment jobs from ADP countered by the September trade...
View ArticleNew Jobless Claims: Worse than Forecast
Today's seasonally adjusted 276K new claims was worse than the Investing.com forecast of 262K. The four-week moving average is at 262,750, up from last week's 259,250, which was at a its lowest levels...
View ArticleSeptember Disposable Income Per Capita Rose 0.07%, 0.15% When Adjusted for...
With the release of today's report on September Personal Incomes and Outlays we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. In today's deflationary environment, the...
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